INTRODUCTION

One year ago this month, Journey Pastoral Coaching published an article entitled, “The World Will End in 23 Years (The Church World).”

In that piece, I cited statistics on the graying of the American pulpit.  How gray are we going?  This gray: 

“By the time your son or daughter, born today, graduates from college, the average ordained AG minister will be at retirement age (67.5 years).”    The World Will End in 23 Years (March 1, 2019)   

One year has passed since we published this article. I thought it would be a good idea to look at this year’s statistics and see what progress has been made in reversing the graying trend.

OUR APPROACH

We will once again examine the graying of the American pulpit by focusing on four sets of statistics. Individually and as a whole, these figures will help us see just how rapidly credentialed ministers in the US evangelical church are aging. For each of these four focuses, we will first present the figures from one year ago, followed by the latest figures available. Because I am an ordained minister with the Assemblies of God, I will again cite the latest AG statistics. My point is not to criticize the AG, but to draw our attention to a problem that is pervasive in the Protestant church. It is only right that I look at my own denomination rather than another. I love the AG. It has been my home as a credentialed minister for almost forty years and a wonderful home it has been.  

The four areas of focus: 

1.  The average age of ordained AG ministers;

2.  The average age of all credentialed AG ministers;

3.  The number of U40 ministers per AG church;

4.  The number of U40 ministers per 100 AG adherents.

THE NUMBERS

1.  The Average Age of Ordained Ministers;

The Report One Year Ago . . . 

In 2000, the average age of an ordained AG minister was 55 years of age.  

In 2017, the average age of an ordained AG ministers was 60 years of age.  

This reprsents an increase in age of 9% over eighteen years. 

The average age of an ordained AG minister was increasing by one year every 3.5 calendar years. 

The 2018 Update . . .   

In 2018, the average age of AG ordained ministers remains 60 years of age. 

However, as published statistics only include years and not months, we do not know if the average age is slightly younger, older, or the same.  In other words, in 2017, the average age might have been 60 years, 2 months, while for 2018, the average age could have been 60 years, 10 months. We do not have enough information to know.  

In 2017, the average age of an ordained AG minister was increasing by 1 year every 3.5 calendar years. At the 2018 rate, the average age of an ordained AG minister is now increasing by one year every 3.6 calendar years. This is good news. 

Last year’s numbers (2017) indicated the average age of an ordained AG minister would reach full retirement age (67.5) in 2042. This year’s report says that the average age of an ordained AG minister will reach retirement age (67.5) in 2045. Again, while this allows for the fact that we do not know the average age in years and months, it is still very good news. 

However, while the average age of ordained minsters in 2018 remains at 60, the median age of ordained ministers has inched up from 60 to 61 years of age: there are now as many ordained ministers over the age of 61 as there are under 61 years of age. 

Though it has been pushed back from 2042 to 2045, this year’s report indicates that the average age of an ordained AG minister will reach full retirement age in just one generation.

Let that really sink in before you read on.   

And let this sink in: 

By the time your son or daughter born today graduates from college, the average ordained AG minister will still be between 66 and 67 years old.  

2.  The Average Age of All Credentialed Ministers

The AG credentials ministers at three levels: Certified (Entry); Licensed (Intermediate); and Ordained (Evidencing a call to lifelong vocational ministry). Because Ordained credentials are the highest level possible, one might expect the number of young ministers (U40s) to be lower in the Ordained group while being higher in the Licensed and Certified groups. What do the numbers indicate? 

The Report One Year Ago:

In 2000, 26.2% of all credentialed AG ministers were under 40 years of age.  

In 2017, that percentage stood at 20.8%.  

This represented a 5.4% decrease in the number of U40 ministers over 18 years.

The 2018 Update:

In 2018, only 20.2% of credentialed AG ministers were under 40 years. 1 out of 5. 

This represents a decrease of 2.5% from one year ago.

This represents a decrease of almost 9% since 2000. 

Perhaps most challenging of all:  the number of AG U40 credential holders has decreased in 13 of the last 19 years since 2000 – 4 out of the last 5 years.

3.  The Number of U40 Ministers Per AG Church;

The Report One Year Ago

In 2000, there were .70 U40 ministers per church;

In 2017, there were .61 U40 ministers per church.

Between 2000 and 2017, the AG saw a 7.61% increase in the number of churches, but a 15% decrease in the number of U40 ministers per church. 

In 2017 the AG had fewer U40s available to serve a growing number of churches. 

The 2018 Update

In 2018, there were .59 U40 ministers per church – a 3.3% decrease from 2017 and a 15.7% decrease from 2000.  

Between 2017 and 2018, the AG saw a .09% increase in the number of churches, a 3.3% decrease in the number of U40s per church.

Between 2000 and 2018, the AG saw a 7.7% in increase in the number of churches, but a 15.7% decrease in the number of U40s per church. 

In 2018, the AG had even fewer young pastors available to pastor a growing number of churches than it had one year ago, far fewer than it had 18 years ago. 

4.  The Number of U40 Ministers Per AG Adherent.

The Report One Year Ago

In 2000, the AG had 2,577,560 adherents and 8450 U40 credentialed ministers.

In 2017, the AG had 3,214,998 adherents and 7916 U40 credentialed ministers. 

This means that between 2000 and 2017, the AG saw a 25.7% increase in total adherents, but a 33% decrease in the number of U40s per 100 adherents

We had fewer young ministers available to serve a growing number of adherents. 

The 2018 Update 

In 2018, the AG had 3,233,385 adherents and 7,719 U40 credentialed ministers.

So, between 2017 and 2018, the AG had an increase of just over one half of one percent in adherents, but a decrease of 3% in the number of U40s per 100 adherents.  

And between 2000 and 2018, the AG saw a 25.4% increase in the total number of adherents, but a 37.3% decrease in the number of U40s per 100 adherents. 

One year later, we have even fewer U40 ministers available to serve a growing number of adherents.  

WHAT DO THE NUMBERS MEAN?

1.  SEVEN RED FLAGS 

• Comparing the figures of 2018 to previous years, seven warning signs are apparent: Like the gears of a clock, the average age of an ordained AG minister increases 1 year every 3.6 calendar years and will reach retirement age in just 25 years; 

• The average age of ordained minsters in 2017 was 60 – in 2018 it remains at 60; yes, this is still a red flag because it is not decreasing;

• The median age of ordained ministers has inched up from 60 in 2017 to 61 years of age in 2018: there are now as many ordained ministers over the age of 61 as there are ministers under 61 years of age;

• By the time your son or daughter born today graduates from college, the average ordained AG minister will still be between 66 and 67 years of age;

• Only 1 of 5 credentialed AG ministers is under 40. And that number is decreasing;

• Between 2017 and 2018, the total number of AG credentialed ministers under 40 years of age decreased by 197;

• The number of AG U40 ministers has decreased 13 of the last 19 years since 2000 – 4 of the last 5 years.

2.  THE RATE AT WHICH WE ARE AGING IS UNCERTAIN   

If . . . 

• the rate of the last 19 years (2000 – 2018) holds steady in the future, by the time the AG’s 60-year-old credentialed minister of 2018 retires in 2025, only 17.96% of all credentials holders will be under 40 years old (the 2017 figure: 18.6%).

• the rate of the last five years (2014 – 2018) holds steady in the future, by the time the AG’s 60-year-old of 2018 retires in 2025, only 17.68% of all credentials holders will be under 40 years old (the 2017 figure: 18.6%). 

And . . .

• if the 2000-2018 rate continues unchanged, by the time the average age of an ordained AG minister reaches 67.5 (retirement age) in 2045, only11.58% of all credentialed AG ministers will be under 40 years of age.

• if the 2014-2018 rate continues unchanged, by the time the average age of an ordained AG minister reaches 67.5 (retirement age) in 2045, only10.48% of all credentialed AG ministers will be under 40 years of age.

3.  THE PROTESTANT LEADERSHIP PANDEMIC

From last year’s article . . . 

In 2017, The Barna Group (TBG) studied the graying of the pulpit in the Protestant church.  Their findings include the following (You can access their article here): 

In 1992, “the median age of Protestant clergy was 44 years old. One in three pastors was under the age of 40, and one in four was over 55. Just 6 percent were 65 or older. 

In 2017, “Twenty-five years later, the average age is 54. Only one in seven pastors is under 40, and half are over 55. The percentage of church leaders 65 and older has nearly tripled, meaning there are now more pastors in the oldest age bracket than there are leaders younger than 40.” (The Aging of America’s Pastors, March 1, 2017)

TBG goes on to say that the graying of the pulpit has not appeared overnight, but is a problem with roots that go decades deep: 

“In 1968, 55 percent of all Protestant clergy were under the age of 45—that is, the majority of all church leaders were in their 20s, 30s and early 40s. In 2017, just 22 percent are under 45.”

1968. 55. 45.

2017. 22. 45. 

4.  IT’S PAST TIME TO CALL 911 

If the church were a human body and showed this kind of drop in vital statistics, doctors would dispatch the patient to ICU with a full medical escort. 

In the ICU, doctors would ask the obvious question: “What factors led to this condition?” In their study, The Barna Group found the following factors:  

1. People are living longer, remaining active longer – ministers included;
2. More people are entering the ministry later in life, and with this, there is a growing bi-vocational population; 
3. An insufficient number of young adults are entering the ministry; 
4. Financial pressures on pastors are causing them to leave the ministry;
5. The allure of entrepreneurship among young adults: they can “make a difference” doing something else without all of the institutional church baggage; 
6. The lack of leadership development in U40s leaves young ministers unable to continue (Journey exists to address this); 

Note: When we were young, Baby Boomer ministers did have this development offered them by older ministers and denominational leaders, but it is sadly lacking today – I hear it all the time. Years ago, churches were led by pastors and part of their understood responsibility was helping young pastors develop. Today, churches are led by “leaders” who feel no responsibility (or ability?) to help young “pastors” develop. We’ll address this further in a moment. 

• The lack of succession planning among Baby Boomer generation ministers.

The apparent solution would seem to be more young adults answering God’s call to the ministry. Still, this step alone is insufficient for two reasons cited by The Barna Group. First, young ministers would still face significant financial pressures due to high student loan debt, the low pay of first and second positions, and starting families. Second, young ministers still require development after they are in ministry. 

Unless the church addresses these two vital factors, a large influx of new ministers would be meaningless.  As proven by history . . . 

. . . Ministries like PastorServe tell us that 5 of 10 new ministers leave the ministry in their first 5 years;  

. . . The Schaeffer Institute found in a twenty-year survey that every Bible College and seminary graduate had a friend from school who had entered and left the ministry.  

I’ll say it: what we’re doing isn’t working. I said it one year ago and I’ll say it again today: it’s past time to call 911. 

For all of our grand pronouncements and plans, our huge office staffs and budgets, our big meetings and conferences, what we are doing is not working. Not even close. This is not my opinion. This is the report coming out of the machines (here’s the EKG).

And the report says it’s a code blue in the U40 ICU. 

In our next article, two weeks from now, we’ll consider how we can best respond to this 911 Call.

———-

NOTE: Journey Pastoral Coaching exists to provide pastoral coaching to Millennial ministers.

Saddled with large student debt, just beginning to set up homes and start families, and serving in low paying first and second positions, Millennials are those who most desire but can least afford to pay for pastoral coaching.

We are able to do so thanks to the faithful and generous support of individuals and churches like yours who want to see young leaders not only enter the ministry, but remain in the ministry. 

Now, more than ever, we need your help. 

If you or your church would like to help Millennial ministers across the US and overseas build strong for a lifetime in ministry, please click here to support Journey monthly or with your one-time gift. Thank you.

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“In the early years when I was becoming a pastor, I needed a pastor.” 

 Eugene H. Peterson, The Pastor: A Memoir