JPC SURVEY: PASTORS REFLECT ON 2020, PROJECT INTO 2021 – PART TWO
During December, Journey asked pastors, their spouses, and ministers who work directly with pastors to reflect and project: reflect on the health and strength of the church and pastors in 2020; project the health and strength of each in 2021.
We asked respondents to consider the American Evangelical church as a whole rather than their own local churches or international denominations.
In today’s article, we present the results of part two of our survey in which we ask pastors to project forward into 2021, forecasting the strength and health of the church and pastors in the year ahead.
We conclude both articles with observations on the results, observations offered by leaders within the Journey Pastoral Coaching community.
2021: WHAT LIES AHEAD FOR THE CHURCH AND FOR PASTORS?
1. What lies ahead for the American evangelical church in 2021? (Select all that apply)
Great Revival. 21.1%
Some Revival. 48.8%
Uncertain. 31.1%
The “COVID spirit” (life, energy, community life) continues in the church. 42.5%
A return to the pre-COVID spirit (life, energy, community life) the church possessed. 16.26%
Uncertain. 41.3%
Some Persecution. 51.2%
Much Persecution. 13.8%
Uncertain. 35%
2. How strong will church attendance be at the end of 2021? (Select one)
1. 25% of pre-COVID level. 2.5%
2. 50% of pre-COVID level. 25%
3. 75% of pre-COVID level. 47.7%
4. 100% of pre-COVID level. 6.2%
5. 125% of pre-COVID level. 13.7%
6. 150% of pre-COVID level. 3.7%
7. 200% of pre-COVID level. 1.2%
8. Higher than 200% of pre-COVID level. 0%
3. Will the end of 2021 see a more spiritually healthy church or a less spiritually healthy church? An answer of 1 means much less healthy; an answer of 10 means much more healthy than 2020. 6.53
4. How strong will church discipleship ministries be in the church in 2021? A recent Barna study found that while 60-70% of Americans claim to be Christian, only 6% of all “Christians” have a classical Christian worldview – only 2% of Millennials. Churches have not been effective in making disciples. With this in mind, how strong will church discipleship ministries be in the church in 2021? An answer of 1 means very much weaker; an answer of 10 means very much stronger than 2020. 5.81
5. Considering the Barna study cited above, how strong will individual discipleship be in 2021? An answer of 1 means very much weaker; an answer of 10 means very much stronger than 2020. 5.85
6. How healthy will be the spiritual practices of pastors at the end of 2021? An answer of 1 means completely unhealthy; an answer of 10 means completely healthy. 6.75
7. How spiritually strong will pastors be at the end of 2021? An answer of 1 means as weak as weak can be; an answer of 10 means as strong as strong can be. 6.96
8. How emotionally strong will pastors be at the end of 2021? An answer of 1 means as weak as weak can be; an answer of 10 means as strong as strong can be. 6.43
9. How aggressive in faith will pastors be in leading their churches in 2021? An answer of 1 means completely passive and lacking faith; an answer of 10 means completely confident and faith-filled. 6.46
10. How encouraged are you about the church in 2021? An answer of 1 means completely discouraged; an answer of 10 means completely encouraged. 6.81
OBSERVATIONS OF JOURNEY LEADERS
After compiling the results of our survey, we forwarded them to several key leaders in Journey and asked for their observations. No further instructions or limits were given them. They were free to comment on any section or all sections of the survey. Here’s what they had to say about the results above. All responses are anonymous.
COMMENTS ON THE RESULTS OF OUR LOOK AHEAD TO 2021:
For the third section (projecting into 2021), I’m seeing conflicting information. 69.9% of respondents believe some sort of revival is coming to the church while at the same time, 75.3% believe the church will be 25%-75% smaller at the end of 2021. I’m not sure what this means, but it does seem odd to me.
For the third section, I’m also seeing a strong disconnect between respondents’ subjective opinions and Barna’s (hopefully) objective research. Respondents seemed to think that Christian growth in maturity will continue to trend upward, while the research shows that the church is doing an extremely poor job of catechizing their flocks and helping them to walk in that knowledge. It may be a wakeup call that what we Pastors think is being effective at discipleship is in reality very much ineffective.
It looks like pastors aren’t looking at 2021 in an integrated manner, but only seeing the individual pieces of the picture. How can 70% say some or great revival is coming but only 16% see us breaking free from this stifling COVID mentality? 42% see a COVID feeling continuing in the church and another 42% wonder if a COVID feeling will continue. And if pastors anticipate discipleship being so weak in 2021 – less than a 6 on a scale of 1 to 10 – that doesn’t say revival is coming or has come. That says orthodoxy is weak. You can’t equate weak orthodoxy with spiritual revival.
It’s interesting that pastors forecast they will be spiritually stronger than the health of their spiritual practices. I’d like to know how this works.
Although not by much, the trend toward strong and healthy trends upward by the end of 2021. It seems that people are generally more hopeful that the church and pastors will be stronger and healthier at the end of 2021 than they are at the end of 2020. That is encouraging.
Do this many pastors really see revival coming in 2020? How does the church continue in a COVID mindset during revival? That’s how I read the results and it doesn’t make sense.
This is strange: the second highest strength score for pastors for 2021 is how encouraged they feel about 2021: a 6.81 out of 10. This is higher than their expectations of a spiritually healthy church in 2021 (6.53), higher than their measure of church discipleship ministries in 2021 (5.81), higher than their measure of Christians’ person discipleship in 2021 (5.85), higher than three other subjects, AND almost one out of two see the COVID church attitude or mentality continuing. I think pastors are hoping things will get better rather than looking at things realistically; they’re hoping in the face of evidence that says the opposite. Honestly, this disconnect concerns me more than the low strength numbers because it says that pastors are not accurately seeing their churches or where people are spiritually. Major disconnect.
There is a great deal of uncertainty regarding what we should expect from/for pastors and churches in the coming year. Most of the average responses on a scale of 1-10 were between 5-6. That tells me that many survey respondents (including myself) are very cautiously optimistic about the immediate future for pastors and churches. But at the same time, we seem to be hedging our bets. Maybe this has a healthy motivation behind it; meaning, perhaps we’ve given up on trying to predict the future. Maybe this is a subtle indication that pastors and churches are planning to rely more on God than on our own intuition (“gut instincts”) in the future. In other words…we’ll see.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Generally, pastors are slightly more optimistic than pessimistic about 2021, given that their responses to our survey are above the mid-range score of five. However, if scores in the five-to-six range are seen as percentages, “grades” of 50% to 60% translate into a very guarded optimism:
- A mildly hopeful anticipation of revival . . . an alarmingly low expectation that the COVID spirit in the church will finally end . . . high expectation of some level of persecution.
- Three out of four see church attendance lower than pre-COVID levels.
- The average respondent says spiritual health and discipleship of the church in 2021 will be poor.
- The average respondent says the health and practices of pastors in 2021 will be slightly stronger than that of the churches they pastor.
Guarded optimism. Hopeful. There’s work yet to be done. Improvement needed. Faith and faithfulness required. These seem to be the qualitative heartbeats behind the quantitative readings pastors have read for the Church and for pastors in general. But upon what is this hope based?
To be sure, the one dynamic and critical factor not directly addressed in our survey is that of a sovereign God at work in His church. Revival comes not because human beings have constructed it through their own works, but it comes in accordance with the character, plans, and times of God. And, mysteriously, it comes in response to the longing of God’s saints, His reply to our hearts aching for Him. Not for His blessings, nor for our best life now, but for Him and the accomplishment of His purposes, whatever the cost to our lives. This longing and aching is spoken not in the language of Sunday songs written by others for us to sing along with, but in a desire for God that is expressed in: our seeking to know Him through His Word; our yearning for Him in prayer; a return to biblical Sabbath; seeking Him through the way of centuries-old spiritual disciplines; in our broken-at-his-feet, words-that-cannot-be-spoken intercessions; individually and in communities of faith.
Once upon a time, such language was not foreign to the church. It was the language of home. It was our mother tongue. Do you remember? Can you still speak it? If you can, ask God to lead you home to the hearth of His Spirit, the light and the heat of His fire. If you can’t remember because you’ve never experienced these things, ask saints in your family of families (your church) if they know the way. If they don’t know the way, continue asking until someone says, “Yes, I know the way. Let’s walk it together on our knees.”
This is The Way.
It will not be easy, The Way. It will require perseverance and even sacrifice. But for those who know The Way, this is no surprise: it has always been so. From the persecutions of the first church to John the Beloved accepting banishment to Patmos, The Way has led us not just to “believe,” but to follow the Savior who entered the wilderness for forty days and then exited to show us the way by taking up His cross and dying for our sins.
Those who take up their own crosses may well see persecution in 2021. But, like Jesus, we will also see the power of the resurrection, not only in the life that is to come, but in this life. In 2021.
Oh Lord, will You not revive us again, so that Your people may rejoice in You! (Psalm 85.6) And will you not strengthen us again in you and Your way, so that we, your people, may glorify your Holy Name, minister to each other, and carry the Gospel of Jesus to the ends of the earth!
“May the Lamb who was slain receive the reward of His suffering,” was the heart cry of Moravians as they went into all the world, carrying the Gospel. God responded to their faith and faithfulness with great moves of His Spirit all around the world. May their heart cry be ours! And may the revival they experienced be only the former rain of an incredible latter rain to come in 2021!
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