Future Church: Young Ministers Predict the Future – Part I
How Did He Do THAT?
I remember years ago sitting in a meeting room in Bled, Slovenia (see the picture) with a group of missionary pastors from across the Continent as our executive director talked to us about the future of Europe. In some detail he told us that Europe’s future would be determined and defined by demographics, economics and politics. He asked if we and our churches would be ready strategically and logistically to work with the Holy Spirit in the Europe that was coming. I’ve often reflected on those meetings and marveled at the prescience of our director: he accurately foresaw it (not just for one nation, but for an entire continent); he informed us clearly of it; and he did all he could to help us prepare for it.
These meetings were important for all of us who gathered there. Yes, we were informed about the future of Europe and yes we learned how important it was to adapt our ministries to what was coming. But most of all, we learned how important it is to look to the future: to study what was currently happening around us; to discuss with others what it all meant; and to pray together over these things – all so that we might best lead our churches in seizing the opportunities given us to minister the Gospel across Europe.
How Can WE Do That?
As ministers of the Gospel we cannot afford to be those who live reacting in knee-jerk fashion to change. We must be those who respond wisely to change, anticipate and even lead change.
Apple does it with tech. Amazon does it with online retail. FedEx does it with delivery. All three do it today because years ago while others were reacting to the the present, Apple, Amazon, and FedEx were responding to the futures they had foreseen.
May God help church leaders to do the same.
Granted, we will not always see a consensus in our forecasting. But, the process of individually looking ahead, talking with others, and praying together over what we think we see is critical to effectively ministering the Gospel to our world.
The Question:
With the goal of pondering our present and future as the church that we recently asked young ministers to answer this simple question:
“What major changes do you see coming to the church? Time frame: the next 5 years.”
Negative vs Postive Changes
Respondents were allowed to offer one to three changes, identifying each change as either “Positive” or “Negative.” No “Neutral” changes were accepted: we wanted respondents to not only forecast the future but to think through the ramifications of those predicted changes. It is one thing to predict a change, but quite another to predict whether the outcomes of that change will be generally positive or negative. Every pastor, missionary and marketplace minister has to be able to do this.
Respondents deemed 40% of the changes as “Negative” and just over 60% to be “Positive.”
We have categorized the responses offered for the sake of organization and ease in reading. Some changes fit into more than one category, and so, appear in each category. The categories, listed alphabetically, are:
APOSTASY
BI-VOCATIONAL MINISTRY
BURNOUT
CHURCH AND CULTURE
CHURCH PLANTING
CHURCH REASON FOR BEING
CHURCH SIZE
COACHING-MENTORSHIP
CONSUMER CHRISTIANITY
DENOMINATIONS
DISCIPLESHIP
FEAR OF GOD
FINANCES
GOSPEL
INDEPENDENT OR NON-DENOM CHURCHES
LEADERSHIP
MEGA-CHURCHES
MINISTERIAL TRAINING
MISSION
MISSIONS
PASTORAL MINISTRY
PASTORS: AGING PULPIT
PASTORS: CELEBRITY
POLITICS
PREACHING
RELATIONSHIPS
RURAL CHURCHES
SIN
SPECIALIZED MINISTRIES: SINGLES, CHILDREN, YOUTH, UNIVERSITY
TAX EXEMPT STATUS
THEOLOGY
WORSHIP SERVICES
In alphabetical order below, we present the negative changes young ministers see coming to the church. In our next blog we will present the positive changes.
NEGATIVE CHANGES:
APOSTASY / CHURCH AND CULTURE
The gap between those who know Jesus and those who do not will widen. Barring any revival (which I am praying for and asking God to use me), the rest of America will slide into the footsteps of Europe and Northeast America. If trends continue, America will continue its slide away from God.
BI-VOCATIONAL MINISTRY / MINISTERIAL TRAINING
The majority of new ministers will come from secular universities and careers necessitating changes in ministerial training and better integration of bi-vocational models.
BURNOUT / COACHING-MENTORSHIP
Decline of Longevity in Ministers. As young ministers attempt to navigate the seas of ministry without adequate guidance and coaching from the generation of ministers who came before, many decide that fighting to stay in ministry is too difficult a journey.
CHURCH AND CULTURE / DISCIPLESHIP / GOSPEL
Christianity’s “cool” sect of Christians will continue to grow. Hipster and Christianity are almost becoming synonymous. As people strive to be a cool Christian instead of themselves they are forgetting that you can’t be relevant enough to erase the offensiveness of the Gospel.
CHURCH AND CULTURE / WORSHIP SERVICES
In a desire to stay relevant, we will lose the important traditions that should still be practiced like altar calls, waiting on the Lord, revival services, etc.
CHURCH AND CULTURE / DISCIPLESHIP
Less Biblical Christianity. As the church desires to welcome the world they will lose biblical practices that seem radical or don’t make sense. This is because there is a heart to be relevant with not enough effort given into contextualizing biblical Christianity.
CHURCH AND CULTURE
The general church will fail to adequately handle addressing the legalization of medical marijuana. Marijuana usage for medicinal purposes will be vilified while our church and board members will still be hooked on narcotic painkillers.
CHURCH AND CULTURE / POLITICS
Bi-partisan politics will continue to further divide and split evangelical Christians, making a loss of unity and love amongst the body apparent to the unbelieving world.
CHURCH AND CULTURE / POLITICS / TAX EXEMPT STATUS
Lawmakers will buckle under political pressure concerning the church. As political pressure increases and funding for schools and welfare decreases, lawmakers will begin pursuing the ideas of church taxation. Pastors and church leaders will be vigilant in fighting against such taxes. The increased pressure and struggle against it may affect society’s view of the church further.
CHURCH AND CULTURE / DENOMINATIONS
Most congregants will not know what denomination their church is a part of. A generation obsessed with individuality and diversity will not see the benefit of denominational structures.
CHURCH AND CULTURE / PREACHING / DOCTRINE
Preaching for entertainment value instead of with Truth. We can be both entertaining and truthful but I am afraid with the shortness of attention span that churches will sacrifice all truth for entertainment. In an effort of being trendy replacing truth with activities and messages that are more about trendy subjects and headlines instead of the truth about those subjects and headlines.
CHURCH AND CULTURE / POLITICS
We will see politics invade the church instead of the church invading politics. Just as republicans and democrats are divided, politicians will divide the liberal and conservative Christians.
CHURCH AND CULTURE / APOSTASY
The gap between those who know Jesus and those who do not will widen. Barring any revival (which I am praying for and asking God to use me), the rest of America will slide into the footsteps of Europe and the Northeast America. If the trends continue, America will continue its slide away from God.
CHURCH AND CULTURE / POLITICS
The church in America will face more opposition from the outside world forcing them to modify their methods. In the political climate of the USA, the church will be forced to choose between obeying their government or God. Although this is marked as negative, God will use this to purify His church.
CHURCH LEADERSHIP / DENOMINATIONS
Churches will stray away from denominations. While the initial feeling of freedom and independence will be felt as a positive change, the result will be an eventual lack of accountability for church leaders. Oversight provided by denominational standards and leaders will give way to hand-picked friends of the lead pastor who have the interests of the pastor prioritized above the interests of the church.
CHURCH PLANTING
Many churches will be planted, but only the church plants that were planted from a thriving church will stick. Majority of the lone church plants will fail within 3-5 years of their launch date.
CHURCH REASON FOR BEING / RELATIONSHIPS
Church will more than ever be a service we attend and less than ever be a body of believers.
CHURCH SIZE / PASTORS: CELEBRITY
The gap between small and large churches will increase. An increased value will be placed on celebrity pastors in celebrity churches, causing them to grow in size while smaller churches remain relatively small. This will cause smaller churches to feel more isolated from the larger congregations.
COACHING-MENTORSHIP / BURNOUT
Decline of Longevity in Ministers. As young ministers attempt to navigate the seas of ministry without adequate guidance and coaching from the generation of ministers who came before, many decide that fighting to stay in ministry is too difficult a journey.
CONSUMER CHRISTIANITY / PASTORAL MINISTRY / PREACHING
Rise of consumerism, even more so. If we continue to make consumers then we will not have evangelists. Not only that, we will have weak pastors in the pulpit. Consumerism breeds discontentment.
DENOMINATIONS / MEGA-CHURCHES
Mega-churches will continue to swallow up smaller traditional churches. They will “out compete” the “competition” and begin planting their own churches, essentially creating their own church districts or networks.
DENOMINATIONS / CHURCH LEADERSHIP
Churches will stray away from denominations. While the initial feeling of freedom and independence will be felt as a positive change, the result will be an eventual lack of accountability for church leaders. Oversight provided by denominational standards and leaders will give way to hand-picked friends of the lead pastor who have the interests of the pastor prioritized above the interests of the church.
DENOMINATIONS / CHURCH AND CULTURE
Most congregants will not know what denomination their church is a part of. A generation obsessed with individuality and diversity will not see the benefit of denominational structures.
DISCIPLESHIP / MISSION / GOSPEL
People in socially and educationally developed countries will continue to make the Gospel individualistic, losing the power of sacrifice and service to the needs of the whole kingdom of God as they lose biblical perspective because they are thinking individually about the kingdom. People will focus on “what Jesus can do for me” rather than the greater good of the church or kingdom collective.
DISCIPLESHIP / DOCTRINE
The church will become a teacher of and an enabler in what has been called “moralistic, therapeutic, deism” rather than disciples of Jesus, fulfilling His mission to make disciples of all nations.
DISCIPLESHIP / CHURCH AND CULTURE
Less Biblical Christianity. As the church desires to welcome the world they will lose biblical practices that seem radical or don’t make sense. This is because there is a heart to be relevant with not enough effort given into contextualizing biblical Christianity.
DISCIPLESHIP / DOCTRINE
The church will gain more watered down Christians. Sad to say. but even in my own small group, “inclusion” is becoming the norm. Many people just live however they want, but as long as they go to church and are decent people they see it as enough.
DOCTRINE / REASON FOR BEING
The defining and uniting characteristic of the church will cease to be the truth as taught in Scripture and will instead become unity in values and causes.
DOCTRINE / RELATIONSHIPS
In order to be more relational, personal and new, the church will throw the baby out with the bath water dismissing old ways and teachings as irrelevant because they are not perfect in every way. If we dismiss what came before as a whole, we will throw out the good with the bad. While there is room for change to the old ways and teachings there is also much wisdom and godliness that should be preserved.
DOCTRINE / CHURCH AND CULTURE / PREACHING
Preaching for entertainment value instead of with Truth. We can be both entertaining and truthful but I am afraid with the shortness of attention span that churches will sacrifice all truth for entertainment. In an effort of being trendy replacing truth with activities and messages that are more about trendy subjects and headlines instead of the truth about those subjects and headlines.
DOCTRINE / PREACHING
Churches with watered-down doctrine will be filled with “holy sinners” rather than “changed saints.” Churches that are only about feel good messages/preaching will be filled with a congregation of those claiming to be believers but who are not willing to live a life of true change or conversion.
DOCTRINE / DISCIPLESHIP
The church will become a teacher of and an enabler in what has been called “moralistic, therapeutic, deism” rather than disciples of Jesus Christ fulfilling His mission to make disciples of all nations.
DOCTRINE / INDEPENDENT OR NON-DENOM CHURCHES
De-centralized Church: independent, un-affiliated, non-denom churches will rise in influence and be the main “major” type of churches attended. The ability to meet needs with independent resources and choices is extremely attractive, but long term, who holds these churches accountable? We will see confusion about doctrines and a focus on more personal experience and felt needs. Over all, a lack of accountable affiliation could be detrimental until a new system is established.
DOCTRINE / HOLY SPIRIT
Large churches will continue to pull away from the moving of the Holy Spirit. Remaining seeker sensitive, for the sake of people coming through the door as opposed to presenting the whole truth.
DOCTRINE / DISCIPLESHIP
The church will gain more watered down Christians. Sad to say, but just in my own small group “inclusion” is becoming the norm. Many people just live however they want, but as long as they go to church and are decent people they see it as enough.
FEAR OF GOD / SIN
Churches will preach less on sin and the fear of God. I feel this is a negative change because the fear of the Lord is the beginning of wisdom. Without that fear we will less and less feel the need to talk about sin and that it brings eternal separation from God.
FINANCES
Loss of 501(c)3 tax-exempt status. Could happen in a liberal political context. Could bring financial hardship with taxes that churches would fall under and prevent churches from reaching as much into communities.
GOSPEL / MISSION / DISCIPLESHIP
People in socially and educationally developed countries will continue to make the Gospel individualistic, losing the power of sacrifice and service to the needs of the whole kingdom of God as they lose biblical perspective because they are thinking individually about the kingdom. People will focus on “what Jesus can do for me” rather than the greater good of the church or kingdom collective.
GOSPEL / CHURCH AND CULTURE / DISCIPLESHIP
Christianity’s “cool” sect of Christians will continue to grow. Hipster and Christianity are almost becoming synonymous. As people strive to be a cool Christian instead of themselves they are forgetting that you can’t be relevant enough to erase the offensiveness of the Gospel.
HOLY SPIRIT / DOCTRINE
Large churches will continue to pull away from the moving of the Holy Spirit. Remaining seeker sensitive, for the sake of people coming through the door as opposed to presenting the whole truth.
INDEPENDENT OR NON-DENOM CHURCHES / DOCTRINE
De-centralized church. Independent, un-affiliated, non-denom churches will rise in influence and be the main “major” type of churches attended. The ability to meet needs with independent resources and choices is extremely attractive, but long term, who holds these churches accountable? We will see confusion about doctrines and a focus on more personal experience and felt needs. Over all, a lack of accountable affiliation could be detrimental until a new system is established.
LEADERSHIP / PASTORS: AGING PULPIT
Baby boomer pastors will be retiring at a large rate. We cannot discount the longevity, stableness, and experience that many of the baby boomer pastors bring. I wonder if the church is ready for such a number of pastors leaving. The potential positive side of this is that a new generation of pastors is able to lead the church into a new millennium with new thoughts and ideas that could build up the church.
MEGA-CHURCHES / RURAL CHURCHES
Mega-churches will continue to grow while rural churches will become fewer. There will be a greater migration of people going to larger churches to get their “needs” met. Not only that, but a majority of young gifted pastors desire to pastor in larger communities. The negative side of this is we will lose the influence of a local pastor in these communities that can effect change in their local context.
MEGA-CHURCHES / DENOMINATIONS
Mega-churches will continue to swallow up smaller traditional churches. They will “out compete” the “competition” and begin planting their own churches, essentially creating their own church districts or networks.
MINISTERIAL / TRAINING THEOLOGY
The value placed on theological and ministerial education will continue to decline.
MINISTERIAL TRAINING / BI-VOCATIONAL MINISTRY
The majority of new ministers will come from secular universities and careers necessitating changes in ministerial training and better integration of bi-vocational models.
MISSION / DISCIPLESHIP / GOSPEL
People in socially and educationally developed countries will continue to make the Gospel individualistic, losing the power of sacrifice and service to the needs of the whole kingdom of God as they lose biblical perspective because they are thinking individually about the kingdom. People will focus on “what Jesus can do for me” rather than the greater good of the church or kingdom collective.
MISSIONS
There will be a decreasing understanding of why we do missions. While missions giving remains strong, there is a growing lack of understanding among ministers and even greater among lay people. Not only are local Christians missing their call to participate in missions, but fewer people are hearing the call to missions from the local church and a misdirected strategy on where and how we do missions in general.
PASTORAL MINISTRY / CONSUMER CHRISTIANITY / PREACHING
Rise of consumerism, even more so. If we continue to make consumers then we will not have evangelists. Not only that, we will have weak pastors in the pulpit. Consumerism breeds discontentment.
PASTORS: AGING PULPIT / LEADERSHIP
Baby boomer pastors will be retiring at a large rate. We cannot discount the longevity, stableness, and experience that many of the baby boomer pastors bring. I wonder if the church is ready for such a number of pastors leaving. The potential positive side of this is that a new generation of pastors is able to lead the church into a new millennium with new thoughts and ideas that could build up the church.
PASTORS: CELEBRITY / CHURCH SIZE
The gap between small and large churches will increase. There will be an increased value placed on celebrity pastors in celebrity churches, causing them to grow in size while smaller churches remain relatively small. This will cause smaller churches to feel more isolated from the larger congregations.
POLITICS / TAX EXEMPT STATUS / CHURCH AND CULTURE
Lawmakers will buckle under political pressure concerning the church. As political pressure increases and funding for schools and welfare decreases, lawmakers will begin pursuing the ideas of church taxation. Pastors and church leaders will be vigilant in fighting against such taxes. The increased pressure and struggle against it may affect society’s view of the church further.
POLITICS
Individual congregations will become more polarized. An ever increasing political divide has crept its way into the Church. People are making decisions regarding where to attend church based on the political leanings of a specific congregation.
POLITICS / CHURCH AND CULTURE
We will see politics invade the church instead of the church invading politics. Just as republicans and democrats are divided, politicians will divide the liberal and conservative Christians.
POLITICS / CHURCH AND CULTURE
Bi-partisan politics will continue to further divide and split evangelical Christians, making a loss of unity and love amongst the body apparent to the unbelieving world.
POLITICS / CHURCH AND CULTURE
The church in America will face more opposition from the outside world forcing them to modify their methods. In the political climate of the USA, the church will be forced to choose between obeying their government or God. Although this is marked as negative, God will use this to purify His church.
PREACHING / DOCTRINE
Churches with watered-down doctrine will be filled with “holy sinners” rather than “changed saints.” Churches that are only about feel good messages/preaching will be filled with a congregation of those claiming to be believers but who are not willing to live a life of true change or conversion.
PREACHING / DOCTRINE / CHURCH AND CULTURE
Preaching for entertainment value instead of with Truth. We can be both entertaining and truthful but I am afraid with the shortness of attention span that churches will sacrifice all truth for entertainment. In an effort of being trendy replacing truth with activities and messages that are more about trendy subjects and headlines instead of the truth about those subjects and headlines.
PREACHING / CONSUMER CHRISTIANITY / PASTORAL MINISTRY
Rise of consumerism, even more so. If we continue to make consumers then we will not have evangelists. Not only that, we will have weak pastors in the pulpit. Consumerism breeds discontentment.
REASON FOR BEING / DOCTRINE
The defining and uniting characteristic of the church will cease to be the truth as taught in Scripture and will instead become unity in values and causes.
RELATIONSHIPS / CHURCH REASON FOR BEING
Church will more than ever be a service we attend and less than ever be a body of believers.
RURAL CHURCHES / MEGA-CHURCHES
Mega-churches will continue to grow while rural churches will become fewer. There will be a greater migration of people going to larger churches to get their “needs” met. Not only that, but a majority of young gifted pastors desire to pastor in larger communities. The negative side of this is we will lose the influence of a local pastor in these communities that can effect change in their local context.
SIN / FEAR OF GOD
Churches will preach less on sin and the fear of God. I feel this is a negative change because the fear of the Lord is the beginning of wisdom. Without that fear we will less and less feel the need to talk about sin and that it brings eternal separation from God.
SPECIALIZED MINISTRIES: SINGLES, CHILDREN, YOUTH, UNIVERSITY
There will be less specialized ministries over time. As the churches shrink to a more relational approach there won’t be the need for as many children’s, youth, singles ministries, etc. The church will be in the relational approach that it will be relating to the children and youth.
TAX EXEMPT STATUS / CHURCH AND CULTURE / POLITICS
Lawmakers will buckle under political pressure concerning the church. As political pressure increases and funding for schools and welfare decreases, lawmakers will begin pursuing the ideas of church taxation. Pastors and church leaders will be vigilant in fighting against such taxes. The increased pressure and struggle against it may affect society’s view of the church further.
TAX EXEMPT STATUS
American churches will lose some if not all of their tax exempt status. Initially, this change will be negative for local churches because we have grown so accustomed to this privilege. The reality is that the majority world Church operates without most of the USA’s protection of churches; it is possible and God could bring something good from it.
THEOLOGY / MINISTERIAL TRAINING
The value placed on theological and ministerial education will continue to decline.
WORSHIP SERVICES / CHURCH AND CULTURE
In a desire to stay relevant, we will lose the important traditions that should still be practiced like altar calls, waiting on the Lord, revival services, etc.
FINAL WORD
In two weeks we will present the second half of this simple study: the positive changes young ministers see coming our way. Not only do respondents as a group see a more positive than negative future, the changes they see are not only thought-provoking but worthy of serious consideration.
We can be thankful that these young leaders are ready and able to lead the church through the challenges presented above and the into the opportunities we will present in two weeks.
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NOTE: Journey Pastoral Coaching provides pastoral coaching to young ministers.
Saddled with large student debt, just beginning to set up homes and start families, and serving in low paying first and second positions, young ministers are those who most desire but can least afford to pay for pastoral coaching.
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“In the early years when I was becoming a pastor, I needed a pastor.”
Eugene H. Peterson, The Pastor: A Memoir
