Predictions for the Church in 2024
With 2024 only days old, here are my predictions for the Evangelical church in America this year. My predictions are not presented as prophetic (we have enough of those), but as my read on the future based on present trends. There is no “God told me” in the thoughts below so you can put away your stones if time proves I have missed the mark.
The sources that flowed together to form my predictions include: Hundreds of conversations with Christians (mentors, peers, pastors and parishioners) and non-Christians; media (sacred and secular); denominational activities; four decades of serving Christ; ministry in Europe; reading the writings of the wise; the Word of God and prayer.
This list is intended as an invitation to contemplation and to prayer.
The world is changing more rapidly than at any other time in history: changes that once required years now seem to happen over just days. Few historic philosophical, moral, or social underpinnings remain in place. The Judeo-Christian foundations of Western Civilization, and so, the US, are crumbling before our eyes in our apparent and willful suicide. The arenas of proof are evident all around us – media, medical, education, entertainment, government, and yes, even the church. What was once unthinkable is now held forth as true and moral.
Change has become the one constant.
My predictions for the American Evangelical church in 2024:
1. The number of young ministers will continue to decline.
This is not so much a prediction as a projection: this decline has been the case throughout the 21st Century among many Evangelical denominations. I’ve written about it extensively here at Journey. In real numbers, the denomination in which I serve has 21% fewer ministers under the age of 40 than it had in the year 2000 and has seen a decline in 17 of the 22 years since. Click here to my most recent article on the subject. Our experience is not unique, but one part of an alarming picture.
2. More Evangelical churches will be closed than planted.
Church planting will continue to be emphasized, but the net gain will be negative: more churches will close than will be planted. Denominations will continue to highlight the number of churches they are planting but will be reluctant to address how many they are closing. The number of closures in 2024, like 2023, will outpace the number of new openings. In spite of massive administrative budgets and glowing publicity, the numbers are there for all to see. And there are no real signs it will change in the future.
3. There will be fewer heroes in the church.
Cancel culture has not only poisoned the American culture but the church. Imperfections of past and present leaders will be grounds for these “statues” to be torn down. We already see it in an Evangelical church that is questioning more and more the hero of all heroes, Jesus, as it less and less accepts His claims of deity, substitutionary atonement, and unique status as Savior. Why then do we imagine current and past church leaders will be exempt from this deconstruction and personal destruction? Our heroes will be attacked as poor examples to imitate as they imitate Christ (I Cor. 11.1). I, for one, however, refuse to accept the destruction of God’s Davids, Pauls, and Marys, past and present. Instead, in 2024 I will continue to look to them as examples of Jesus, heroes of the faith, flawed and even chief among sinners though they be. Just like me.
4. World Missions ministry will change more rapidly than ever.
Two trends will continue. First, US missions organizations working overseas will increasingly emphasize compassion ministries over preaching and teaching ministries. Second, the funding of projects will take precedence over funding resident missionaries on the ground, those who have years of necessary language, cultural, and relational experience. This was already happening when we left missions a decade ago, but the speed of these moves is rapidly intensifying. The heartbeat of the Great Commission, Jesus said, is expressed in missionaries going into all the world, preaching the Gospel and making disciples. This means committed career missionaries who are ready to go and sacrifice that people might become followers of Jesus. The missionaries who go are ready to answer and fulfill this commission. Are we who stay behind committed to send them with our financial and prayer support – and to send them for the primary task of making disciples? I’m less sure of this today than I have ever been. This said, thank God for those who sacrificially pray and give to send the Gospel to every people, tribe, and nation. Like bread and fish in the hands of Jesus, He will bless the bread and multiply it through them to the nations. To the givers, the Master’s “Well done.”
5. The Evangelical church will self-impale and divide over national politics.
Stones are already strategically stacked by political Right and Left as the church leans in to hear the proclamations of the “priests and prophets” of politicians and media pundits – all in the name of “this is the mind of Christ.” These divisions will be long-lasting and defining – even more so than those we have seen in recent years. Rather than fight together against our real enemy, Satan, we – those of political left and political right – will make enemies of each other. Rather than fight in private in prayer before God, we will fight each other in public, clothed in our long and bordered robes of self-righteousness. The Gospel, the Church, and the Name of Jesus will be defamed as a result. One side will win. But we will all lose. Especially those who have witnessed our actions and as a result, turned their backs on Jesus Christ and His Gospel. That said, there will be a remnant who will be found in their prayer closets on their knees before God. To the pray-ers, the Master’s “Well done.”
6. The role of the pastor will become more significant – in disciples’ lives
Feeling themselves among the “harassed and helpless” crowds for whom Jesus felt compassion in Matthew 9.36, many believers will turn from sound-byte preachers to search for pastors, undershepherds of the Great Good Shepherd Jesus. Shepherds who can lead them to God’s green pastures and still waters. Shepherds who will personally tend them in the restauration of their souls. Shepherds who can even lead them through the valley of the shadow of death with God’s goodness and mercy pursuing them every step of the way. God is even now giving to His church shepherds after His own heart, shepherds who are vacating their CEO thrones to return to the pastor’s study and prayer closet, shepherds who are falling on their faces before God in prayer over tear-stained Bibles asking God for His help in pastoring His people. God’s people will respond to these pastors’ heart-felt call. In 2024, God will restore the beauty and strength of this ages-old gift to His church.
7. Social issues will displace the Gospel in much of the church.
The signs are already there for all to see. Out of sincere belief or a fear of not fitting in with the world, much of the pulpit and pew will work together to embrace a new gospel that is not the Gospel, but only the propagandist themes of the brave new world, beautifully packaged for mass consumption (On this subject, read “The Crowd: A Study of the Popular Mind” by Gustave Le Bon). The clear teaching of Scripture will be set aside in the name of compassion, warnings against extremism, and even the love of God. Forgotten will be the basis of God’s love for people: His holiness. But even in this climate, there will be a remnant . . . a remnant whose heartfelt passion and pursuit is the Savior and the proclamation of His Gospel alone. More on this in a moment.
8. America’s persecution of the faithful church will increase, but . . .
The Gospel of Jesus will be labeled more and more as hate speech and its carriers as haters. Believers will find themselves no longer having the luxury of keeping their heads down and walking past cultural hot-button issues but will be required to choose between lords and loves. But those who remain faithful, those who keep His Word and do not deny His name (Rev.3.8), will know God’s empowerment as He pours out His Holy Spirit on them in Acts 2 fashion. It is this church God will use to powerfully preach the Gospel of Jesus as I John 1.1-4 witnesses of the resurrected Christ.
9. Many Christians will look to home gatherings for church.
Studies continue to show that institutional churches, be they formulaic and formal or free-form and informal, are not often perceived as conducive to growing in discipleship or developing personal relationships and community. Too often, the church is seen as a weekly event people attend in the same building. Again, because of the times and in response to the teaching of God’s Word and the leading of the Holy Spirit, many believers will hit the exit doors of religious clubs and entertainment centers, looking for a 21st-century expression of what they read in the New Testament when it comes to biblical discipleship, Holy Spirit direction, and relational community. Many will find this not in institutional churches but in home gatherings. This is not a prediction of the demise of institutional churches of any size but a “coming home” to church by God’s people that will happen in homes and smaller gathering places.
10. There will be a renewed focus on Jesus in the preaching and teaching of His church.
To be sure, the entertainment church will continue to peddle its sugar, but there is a rising hunger for the pure Word of God, and that means the God of the Word incarnate, Jesus Christ. Believers are coming home to Jesus, lifting their voices to heaven in worship and commitment, “In YOU, Jesus, we live and move and have our being.” With this, many pastors will return to the Bible. They will turn from their lives of endless activity to the study of God’s Word. This will be evident in the strength of their souls, personal discipleship, and preaching. Catchy and kitschy sermonettes will more and more give way to expository preaching – especially by younger pastors. These preachers will recognize the power of their preaching is not in the wisdom of their words or their colorful phrasings but in allowing the Written Word to do what God intended when He gave it to us: reveal the Living Word of God in all His glory, goodness, and grace.
CONCLUSION
The world is rapidly changing. We watch or read the news not so much to catch up on the day’s events but to document the changes to our culture. Every day, like a reality TV show or Tik-Tok thread, we watch the episodes of the story of the erosion of the Judeo-Christian foundations of Western Civilization, the dissolution of America’s historic philosophical, moral, and social underpinnings.
Meanwhile, much of the church gives little thought to these changes. We are observers only. When we do stir ourselves to think about these transformations and their ramifications, we are not thinking Christianly about them. Subsequently, we are reduced to reaction rather than response. Preachers rage against the machine in the name of “doing something,” while parishioners just endlessly scroll, scroll, scroll, shaking their heads or laughing at their phones and flat screens, asking each other if we’ve seen the latest.
Or we do nothing as these changes sweep over us like a flood, forcing us into our Sunday clubs of temporary refuge and distraction.
It’s time for the church to seriously consider the signs of the times.
It’s time we turn off our screens, go to our places of prayer, and, in the light of God’s Word, seriously reflect on the changes taking place around us, transforming our churches, families, and even our very souls. May we come home to the spiritual discipline of meditation on the Word of God and reflection on the God of the Word.
It’s time for followers of Jesus to turn our verbal swords into plowshares and civilly talk with each other instead of against each other about these changes and how they affect us, our families, our churches, and our faithful ministry of the Gospel. May we come home to an Acts 15 “It seems good to the Holy Spirit and to us” way of life.
It’s time for us to consider current events from the Bible’s eternal perspective, and so, what our thoughtful, prayer-filled, united responses should be. May we come home to the Word of God, prayerfully studied – studied – individually and collectively.
Which brings me to my final prediction for 2024.
While many in the church will continue to divide and fight each other as followers of Paul, Apollos, or Cephas (insert here the names of your favorite and least favorite politicians and preachers), God’s remnant will hear His call to join Him in the Holy Place of intercession. There they will gather, in the same physical room or in rooms across the country, and cast their thrones of self-rule and robes of self-righteousness at His feet. On their faces, they will seek His face for His grace – His visitation in His church and His intervention in this nation whose motto mocks us: “In God We Trust.”
As I was writing this conclusion, my wife brought me a card she found among her father’s papers. Her parents were missionaries for many years, serving faithfully in Africa and Europe. More than this, they would say, they were just followers of Jesus, responding to His call. The card she shared with me was carefully typed decades ago, but is, I believe, a call from God to us today, one instructing us as we respond to the changes we are witnessing.
The card is titled “The Supreme Necessity of Prayer.” The text upon it:
“Andrew Bonar (Note: Bonar was a 19th Century Scottish pastor) left it on record that he never entered into a session of pure prayer without a fierce battle at the threshold. Satan dreads nothing like prayer. He stands at the portals of the Holy of Holies as an ‘angel of light.’
“He does not openly attack; he diverts. The one concern of Satan is to keep the saints from prayer. He fears nothing from prayerless studies, prayerless work, prayerless religion. He laughs at our toil, mocks at our wisdom, but trembles when we pray. The conviction deepens that the supreme need of every Christian is the spirit of prayer.”
Over the year ahead, a holy army will rise up together and answer this, our Great High Priest’s call.
Always to the glory of God, the strength of His church, and the salvation of a world of people separated from Him.
POST SCRIPT:
After writing the article above, I polled Journey members to ask their thoughts on what is ahead for the church in 2024. Here’s what they had to say. I’ve edited their comments when necessary to blend similar predictions of multiple Journey members or to remove personal identifiers.
1. Separation in the church.
Dead churches and live churches will find it harder to coexist.
Doctrinal divisions will become deeper and wider.
Politics will divide the church.
2. Unity in the Church with an Outpouring of the Holy Spirit.
True believers will unite as never before and the Holy Spirit will be poured out mightily.
Many churches will continue to play church but many others will be thirsty for what they see in the New Testament. God will respond by pouring out his Spirit on them in powerful ways.
God will bring revival to churches that are seeking him with all their heart.
3. The church will finally be done with COVID.
Many churches will stop defining and limiting themselves by their experience with COVID. They will finally stop talking about “rebuilding” and “new normal.” Discipleship and discipleship ministries will not be defined as “post-COVID” but simply as biblical discipleship. I see us moving toward the beginnings of a blank slate—which could be exciting in 2025 and beyond!
4. Politics will continue to divide the church.
Evangelicals will continue to create a political divide by creating an “us vs them” mentality in their unwavering support of one political candidate.
A large amount of pastors will not have learned their lesson from 2020 regarding politics. As a result, the Gen Xers and Millennials who barely made it through the politicizing of their church – politics being preached more than the gospel – will not be able to withstand a second round and will leave churches. Gen Z may not even make it into the church.
The greatest hope for these generations is church planting that is ruthlessly Gospel-centric in their messaging and distinctly different in their practices.
5. More people will come to know Christ as Savior in 2024 than did so in 2023.
6. Fewer people will be baptized in the Holy Spirit in 2024 than were in 2023 baptisms.
7. This will be the first year my denomination’s growth stagnates or trends downward.
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