The End of the Church World – The 2021 Update
INTRODUCTION
Two years ago, and again last year, Journey Pastoral Coaching published an article entitled, “The World Will End in 23 Years (The Church World).”
In that piece, I cited statistics on the graying of the American pulpit. How gray are we going? This gray:
“By the time your son or daughter, born today, graduates from college, the average ordained AG minister will be at retirement age (67.5 years).” The World Will End in 23 Years (March 1, 2019)
Two years has passed since we first began looking at the graying of the American pulpit. It’s time again to look at the most recent statistics available and see what progress has been made in reversing an aging trend that can only be called alarming.
THE APPROACH
Again we will examine the graying of the American pulpit by focusing on four sets of statistics. Individually and as a whole, these numbers will allow us to determine just how rapidly credentialed ministers in the US evangelical church are aging.
We will present figures from 20 years ago, 1 year ago, and the most recent figures available. Because I am an ordained Assemblies of God minister, I will again cite AG statistics. My point is not to criticize the AG, but to draw our attention to a problem that is pervasive in the Protestant church. It is only right that I look at my own denomination rather than another. I love the AG. It has been my home as a credentialed minister for more than forty years and a wonderful home it has been.
The four areas of focus:
1. The average (and median) age of ordained AG ministers;
2. The average (and median) age of all credentialed AG ministers;
3. The number of U40 ministers per AG church;
4. The number of U40 ministers per 100 AG adherents.
NOTE: while 2020 statistics on ministers are available, statistics on churches and adherents are only available through 2019.
THE NUMBERS
1a. The Average Age of Ordained Ministers;
- In 2000, the average age of an ordained AG minister was 55 years of age.
- In 2020, the average age of an ordained AG minister was 60 years of age.
Between 2000 and 2020, the average age of an ordained AG minister increased 9.1% – almost one-half year per calendar year.
On the plus side, the average age of an ordained AG minister has been 60 years old since 2015. However, as published statistics only include years and not months, we do not know if the average age is slightly younger, older, or the same. In 2015, the average age might have been 60 years, 1 month, while for 2020, the average age could have been 60 years, 11 months. We do not have enough information to know.
Of note . . .
Three years ago in 2017, the average age of an ordained AG minister was increasing by 1 year every 3.5 calendar years. At the 2020 rate, the average age of an ordained AG minister is now increasing by 1 year every 4 calendar years. This is good news.
2017 numbers showed the average age of an ordained AG minister would reach full retirement age (67.5) in 2042. The 2020 report indicates that the average age of an ordained AG minister will reach retirement age (67.5) in 2044. Again, while we do not know the average age in years and months, it is still good news that the rate of aging appears to be slowing slightly.
While the average age of ordained minsters in 2020 remains at 60, the median age of ordained ministers s 61 years of age: there are as many ordained ministers over the age of 61 as there are under 61 years of age. Not good news.
Though it has been pushed back from 2042 to 2044, this year’s report still indicates that the average age of an ordained AG minister will reach full retirement age (67.5) in just one generation.
Let that really sink in before you read on.
And let this sink in:
By the time your son or daughter born today graduates from college, the average ordained AG minister will still be OVER 67 years of age.
2. The Average Age of All Credentialed Ministers
The AG credentials ministers at three levels: Certified (Entry); Licensed (Intermediate); and Ordained (Evidencing a call to lifelong vocational ministry.
Because Ordained credentials are the highest level possible, one might expect the number of young ministers (U40s) to be lower in the Ordained group while being higher in the Licensed and Certified groups. What do the numbers indicate?
- In 2000, 26.2% of all credentialed AG ministers were under 40 years of age.
- In 2018, the percentage had dropped to 20.2%.
- In 2019, the percentage fell to 19.7%
- In 2020, the percentage fell yet again, this time to 18.7%.
Of note:
The 2020 percentage represents a decrease of 7.5% over 20 years, a decrease of 1.5% over the past two years, 1% over the most recent year.
Some would cite COVID as an extenuating factor in 2020. Recent history says that while COVID could possibly have affected the degree of decline in 2020, it was not the cause of decline. The number of AG U40 credential holders has decreased in 17 of the last 20 years, every year for the past 6 years. The longterm and significant downward trend is well established.
3. The Number of U40 Ministers Per AG Church;
- In 2000, there were .70 U40 ministers per church;
- In 2018, there were .59 U40 ministers per church.
- In 2019, there were .58 U40 ministers per church.
- 2020 numbers are not available.
Between 2000 and 2019, the AG in America saw a 7.5% increase in the number of churches, but a 17.4% decrease in the number of U40 ministers per church.
Between 2018 and 2019, the AG in America saw a net decrease of 31 churches, a virtual 0% increase-decrease in the number of churches. But due to the continued and substantial decline in the number of U40s, this represents a 4.72% decrease in the number of U40s per church.
Of Note:
In 2019, as in the previous 6 years, the AG had fewer U40s available to serve its churches, far fewer than it had 20 years ago.
What is unique about 2019, however, is that in addition to seeing a decrease in its number of U40 ministers, the AG also saw a decrease in its number of churches.
What is unique about the years 2015 through 2019 is that the AG added only 89 churches during this period. Churches were planted and churches were closed, leaving a net gain of just 89.
During the same five years, 2015-2019, the number of U40 credentialed ministers in the AG decreased by 655.
4. The Number of U40 Ministers Per AG Adherent.
- In 2000, the AG had 1 U40 minister per 305 adherents
- In 2018, the AG had 1 U40 minister per 419 adherents
- In 2019, the AG had 1 U40 minister per 437 adherents
- 2020 numbers are not available.
Between 2000 and 2019, the AG saw a 27.9% increase in total adherents, but a 30.3% decrease in the number of U40s per 100 adherents
Between 2018 and 2019, the AG had an increase of 1.9% in adherents, but a decrease of 4.2% in the number of U40s per 100 adherents.
Of note . . .
As has been true virtually every year since 2001, in 2019 we had even fewer U40 credentialed ministers available to serve a growing number of adherents.
By the time your son or daughter born today graduates from college in 2043, the odds that his or her pastor – lead, youth, worship, discipleship, etc. – will be under 40 years of age are very, very small. How small?
- If the rate of decline seen between 2000-2020 continues, only 10% of all credentialed AG ministers will be under 40 years of age in 2043.
- If the rate of decline seen between 2015-2020 continues, only 7% of all credentialed AG ministers will be under 40 years of age in 2043.
WHAT DO THE NUMBERS MEAN?
1. SEVEN RED FLAGS
Comparing the figures of 2019/2020 to previous years, seven warning signs are apparent:
- Like the gears of a clock, the average age of an ordained AG minister increases 1 year every 4 calendar years and will reach retirement age (67.5) in just 23 years.
- The average age of ordained minsters in 2019 was 60 – in 2020 it remains at 60; yes, this is still a red flag because it is not decreasing;
- There are as many ordained ministers over the age of 61 as there are ministers under 61 years of age. This number will continue to increase, rapidly or slowly, as older ministers die and young men and women do not take their place. With a median age of 61, this does not bode well for the immediate future.
- By the time your son or daughter born today graduates from college, the average ordained AG minister will be over 67 years of age.
- Fewer than 1 in 5 credentialed AG ministers is under 40 years of age. And that percentage is decreasing every year.
- Between 2019 and 2020, the total number of AG credentialed ministers under 40 years of age decreased by 497. Between 2018 and 2019, this number decreased by 177, . . .
- The number of AG U40 credential holders has decreased in 15 of the last 20 years, 8 out of the last 10 years, every year for the past 6 years.
2. THE RATE AT WHICH WE ARE AGING IS UNCERTAIN
If . . .
- the rate of the last 20 years (2000-2020) holds steady in the future, by the time the AG’s 60-year-old credentialed minister of 2020 retires in 2027, only 16.08% of all credentials holders will be under 40 years of age. OK
- the rate of the last five years (2015–2020) holds steady in the future, by the time the AG’s 60-year-old of 2020 retires in 2027, only 14.78% of all credentials holders will be under 40 years of age.
And . . .
- if the 2000-2020 rate continues unchanged, by the time the average age of an ordained AG minister reaches 67.5 (retirement age) in 2044, only 9.7% of all credentialed AG ministers will be under 40 years of age.
- if the 2015-2020 rate continues unchanged, by the time the average age of an ordained AG minister reaches 67.5 (retirement age) in 2044, only 6.7% of all credentialed AG ministers will be under 40 years of age.
Let. me say that again in a different way . . .
At the 2000-2020 rate of decline in U40 credential-holders:
- In 2027, 16.08% of all credential-holders will be U40s.
- In 2044, 9.7% of all credential-holders will be U40s.
At the 2015-2020 rate of decline in U40 credential-holders:
In 2027, 15.2% of all credential-holders will be U40s.
In 2044, 6.7% of all credential-holders will be U40s.
3. THE PROTESTANT LEADERSHIP PANDEMIC
The Barna Group’s most recent study on the graying of the Protestant Church pulpit looked at data from 2017. Their findings include the following (Available here):
In 1992, “the median age of Protestant clergy was 44 years old. One in three pastors was under the age of 40, and one in four was over 55. Just 6 percent were 65 or older.
In 2017, “Twenty-five years later, the average age is 54. Only one in seven pastors is under 40, and half are over 55. The percentage of church leaders 65 and older has nearly tripled, meaning there are now more pastors in the oldest age bracket than there are leaders younger than 40.” (The Aging of America’s Pastors, March 1, 2017)
TBG goes on to say that the graying of the pulpit has not appeared overnight, but is a problem with roots that go decades deep:
“In 1968, 55 percent of all Protestant clergy were under the age of 45—that is, the majority of all church leaders were in their 20s, 30s and early 40s. In 2017, just 22 percent are under 45.”
1968. 55. 45.
2017. 22. 45.
4. IT’S PAST TIME TO CALL 911
If the church were a human being and showed this degree of decline in vital statistics, doctors would dispatch the patient to ICU with a full medical team escort.
In the ICU, doctors would ask the obvious question: “What factors led to this condition?” In their study, The Barna Group found the following factors:
1. People are living longer, remaining active longer – ministers included;
2. More people are entering the ministry later in life, and with this, there is a growing bi-vocational population;
3. An insufficient number of young adults are entering the ministry;
4. Financial pressures on pastors are causing them to leave the ministry;
5. The allure of entrepreneurship among young adults: they can “make a difference” doing something else without all of the institutional church baggage:
6. The lack of leadership development in U40s leaves young ministers unable to continue (Note: The mission of Journey Pastoral Coaching is to address this very issue.)
NOTE: It is my experience, and the testimony of most of my ministry peers, that in our early years of ministry, we had the benefit of active, positive mentors. Sadly, studies show that we who benefitted from mentorship are not as active in offering it to the next generation: mentorship in ministry is seriously lacking today. Where, in previous decades, churches were led by pastors who understood that part of their responsibility was helping young pastors develop, the same cannot be said of Baby Boomer Generation pastors. Today, churches are overseen by “leaders” who do not feel a responsibility (or ability?) to help young “pastors” develop. CEOs have displaced shepherds in the church. Not only does it negatively affect this generation of believers, but generations of believers to follow as it robs the church of pastors today and tomorrow (see Matthew 9.36). We’ll have more to say about this.
7. The lack of succession planning among Baby Boomer generation ministers.
FINAL THOUGHT
The apparent solution would seem to be more young adults answering God’s call to the ministry. But this step alone is insufficient for two reasons cited by The Barna Group:
- First, young ministers would still face significant financial pressures due to high student loan debt, the low pay of first and second positions, and starting families;
- Second, young ministers still require development after they have entered the ministry – they need it and want it, but can’t find willing mentors.
Unless the church addresses these two vital factors, a large influx of new ministers would be meaningless. As proven by history . . .
- . . . Ministries like PastorServe tell us that five of ten new ministers leave the ministry In their first five years;
- . . . The Schaeffer Institute found in a twenty-year survey that every Bible College and seminary graduate had a friend from school who had entered and left the ministry.
I’ll say it again and again and again: what we’re doing isn’t working. It’s far past time to call 911.
For all of our grand pronouncements and plans, our huge office staffs and budgets, our big meetings and conferences, what we are doing is not working. Not even close. This is not my opinion. This is the report coming out of the forensic machines (here’s the EKG).
And the report says it’s a code blue in the U40 ICU.
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