The Graying of the American Pulpit: A Perfect Storm Isn’t Coming. It’s Here.
INTRODUCTION
Across all denominations, the pastorate in America is aging at an alarming rate.
Every year, Journey Pastoral Coaching reports on the crucial issue. With denominational statistics for 2021 recently released, it’s time to examine the landscape again.
THE APPROACH
We will again examine the graying of the American pulpit by focusing on four sets of statistics. Individually and collectively, these numbers reveal how rapidly credentialed ministers in the American church are aging.
Our examination focuses on figures from the past two decades and today. Because I am ordained with the Assemblies of God, I will again cite AG statistics. My point is not to criticize the AG, but to draw our attention to a problem that is pervasive in the Protestant church. It is only right that I look at my own denomination rather than another. I love the AG. It has been my home as a credentialed minister for forty plus years and a wonderful home it has been.
The four areas of focus:
1. The average (and median) age of ordained AG ministers;
2. The average (and median) age of all credentialed AG ministers;
3. The number of ministers under 40 (U40s) per AG church;
4. The number of ministers under 40 (U40s) per 100 AG adherents.
Let’s start with a hard dive: Between the years 2000 and 2021, The AG (USA) lost one U40 minister every 4 to 5 days. Every week of every year for twenty-one years. And no, they have not been replaced; that is the point.
THE NUMBERS
1a. The Average Age of Ordained Ministers;
In 2000: 55 years of age.
In 2015: 60 years of age.
In 2021: 61 years of age.
From 2000 to 2021, the average age of an ordained AG minister increased 10.9%.
From 2015 to 2021, the average age of an ordained AG minister increased 1.7%.
Of note . . .
Based on the past five years’ statistics, the average age of an ordained AG minister will reach retirement age (67.5) in 2042.
While the average age of ordained minsters in 2021 has risen to 61, the median age of ordained ministers remains unchanged at 61 years of age: there are as many ordained ministers over the age of 61 as there are under 61 years of age.
Let that sink in before you read on.
And then let this sink in: Based on the current rate (2011-2021), by the time your son or daughter born today graduates from college, the average ordained AG minister will be over 68 years of age.
2. The Average Age of All Credentialed Ministers
The Assemblies of God credentials ministers at three levels: Certified (Entry); Licensed (Intermediate); and Ordained (Evidencing a call to lifelong vocational ministry).
Because Ordained credentials are the highest level possible, one should expect the number of U40s to be lower in the Ordained group, higher in the Licensed and Certified groups, but, hopefully, overall, there will be an increase in the total number of credentialed U40s. What do the numbers indicate?
In 2000, 26.2% of all credentialed AG ministers were under 40 years of age (Total: 8450)
In 2010, the percentage stood at 22.5% (Total: 7873)
In 2021, the percentage fell again to 18.1%. (Total: 6785)
Of note:
Between 2000 and 2020, the AG saw a net loss of 1405 U40 ministers (73 per year).
Between 2000 and 2021, the AG saw a net loss of 1665 U40s (89 per year).
In percentages, the 2021 statistical report reveals . . .
. . . a net U40s decrease of 19.7% from 2000 to 2021,
. . . a net U40s decrease of 10% over the two previous years (2019-2021),
. . . a net U40s decrease of 3.7% over the previous year (2020-2021).
In hard numbers . . .
For the most recent years (2020-2021), the AG saw a decline of 260 U40s;
For the three most recent years (2018-2021) the AG saw a decline of 934 U40s;
For the five most recent years (2016-2021), the AG saw a decline of 1182 U40s.
The 2021 report cites COVID as an extenuating factor in the declining number of U40s in 2020 and 2021. This may or may not be the case; we have no way of knowing with certainty. But AG statistics demonstrate that this decline long predates COVID:
The number of U40s has declined . . .
Every year for the past 7 years;
8 of the last 10 years;
16 of the past 21 years.
There is no clear evidence that a COVID-free 2020-2021 would have meant an increase in U40s. The downward trend in the number of AG credentialed ministers under the age of 40 is entrenched in a two-decade long downward spiral.
Anecdotally, as a pastoral coach, colleagues often contact me in search of pastoral staff members. I am often unable to supply them any candidates. Even asking our members in 21 states across the nation turns up few, if any names. Surveying our members, I hear time and time again that their churches are finding it more and more difficult to find even one candidate for open staff positions.
3. The Number of U40 Ministers Per AG Church;
In 2000, there were .70 U40 ministers per church;
In 2019, there were .58 U40 ministers per church;
In 2021, there were .53 U40 ministers per church.
Of Note:
Between 2020 and 2021 The US AG saw a net decrease of 108 churches (less than one percent).
But due to the substantial decline in the number of U40s (260), there was a decrease in the number of U40s per church from 2020 to 2021: 2.9%.
Between 2019 and 2020 . . .
The US AG saw a net decrease of 48 churches (less than one-half of one percent).
But due to the substantial decline in the number of U40s (497), there was a 9.3% decrease in the number of U40s per church for the same period.
Between 2000 and 2021 . . .
The US AG saw a net increase of 746 churches, but a decrease of 1665 U40 ministers. This translates into a 6.2% increase in the number of churches (37.3 new churches nationwide per year), but a 24.3% decrease in the number of U40 ministers per church.
In each of the past 7 years, 8 of the last 10 years, 16 of the last 21 years, the AG has had fewer U40s available to serve its churches, far fewer than it had 21 years ago.
Between 2000 and 2019 . . .
Removing the two COVID years of 2020 and 2021, and looking only at the period of 2000 to 2019, the US AG saw an increase of 902 churches nationwide, but a decrease of 908 U40 ministers. This translates into a 7.5% increase in the number of churches over two decades (47.5 new churches nationwide per year), but a 17.1% decrease in the number of U40s per church.
4. The Number of U40 Ministers Per AG Adherent.
In 2000, the AG had 1 U40 minister per 305 adherents
In 2018, the AG had 1 U40 minister per 419 adherents
In 2019, the AG had 1 U40 minister per 437 adherents
In 2020, the AG had 1 U40 minister per 463 adherents
2021 numbers for adherents are not yet available.
Between 2000 and 2020, the AG saw a 26.5% increase in total adherents, but a 51.8% decrease in the number of U40s per 100 adherents
Between 2019 and 2020, the AG had a decrease of 1.1% in adherents, but still saw a decrease of 5.9% in the number of U40s per 100 adherents.
Of note . . .
As has been true almost every year since 2001, in 2021 the AG had fewer U40 ministers available to serve a growing number of adherents.
By the time your son or daughter born in 2022 graduates from college in 2044, the odds that his or her pastor – lead, youth, worship, etc. – will be under 40 years of age are very small. Consider:
If the rate of decline seen between 2000-2020 continues, only 9.6% of all credentialed AG ministers will be under 40 years of age in 2044.
If the rate of decline seen between 2015-2020 continues, only 7% of all credentialed AG ministers will be under 40 years of age in 2043.
WHAT DO THE NUMBERS MEAN?
1. SEVEN RED FLAGS
Comparing this most recent year to previous years, seven warning signs are apparent:
1. Like the gears of a clock, the average age of an ordained AG minister increases 1 year every 3.4 years and will reach retirement age (67.5) in just 20 years (2042)
2. The average age of ordained minsters in 2021 increased from 60 to 61 years old.
3. The median age of ordained ministers in 2021 remained 61 years old. There are as many ordained ministers over the age of 61 as there are ministers under 61 years of age. This number will continue to increase, rapidly or slowly, as older ministers die and young men and women do not take their place.
4. By the time your son or daughter born in 2022 graduates from college, the average ordained AG minister will be over 68 years of age.
5. Fewer than 1 in 5 (18%) credentialed AG ministers is under 40 years of age. And that percentage is decreasing every year.
6. Between 2020 and 2021, the number of U40s decreased by 260, . . . Between 2019 and 2020, the total number of U40 ministers decreased by 497.
7. The number of AG U40 credential holders has decreased in 16 of the last 21 years since 2000, 8 out of the last 10 years, every year for the past 6 years.
2. THE RATE AT WHICH WE ARE AGING IS UNCERTAIN
If . . .
. . . the rate of the last 20 years (2000-2020) holds steady in the future, by the time the AG’s 60-year-old credentialed minister of 2020 retires in 2027, only 15.89% of all credentials holders will be under 40 years of age.
. . . the rate of the last five years (2015–2020) holds steady in the future, by the time the AG’s 60-year-old of 2020 retires in 2027, only 14.78% of all credentials holders will be under 40 years of age.
And . . .
. . . if the 2000-2020 rate continues unchanged, by the time the average age of an ordained AG minister reaches 67.5 (retirement age) in 2042, only 9.6% of all credentialed AG ministers will be under 40 years of age.
. . . if the 2015-2020 rate continues unchanged, by the time the average age of an ordained AG minister reaches 67.5 (retirement age) in 2042, only 6% of all credentialed AG ministers will be under 40 years of age.
3. THE PROTESTANT LEADERSHIP PANDEMIC
The Barna Group’s most recent study on the aging of the pulpit in the Protestant church looked at data from 2017. Their findings include the following (Available here):
In 1992, “the median age of Protestant clergy was 44 years old. One in three pastors was under the age of 40, and one in four was over 55. Just 6 percent were 65 or older.
In 2017, “Twenty-five years later, the average age is 54. Only one in seven pastors is under 40, and half are over 55. The percentage of church leaders 65 and older has nearly tripled, meaning there are now more pastors in the oldest age bracket than there are leaders younger than 40.” (The Aging of America’s Pastors, March 1, 2017)
TBG goes on to say that the graying of the pulpit has not appeared overnight, but is a problem with roots that go decades deep:
“In 1968, 55 percent of all Protestant clergy were under the age of 45—that is, the majority of all church leaders were in their 20s, 30s and early 40s. In 2017, just 22 percent are under 45.”
Your key numbers again:
1968. 55. 45.
2017. 22. 45.
4. IT’S PAST TIME TO CALL 911
If the church were a human body and showed this decline in vital statistics, doctors would dispatch the patient to ICU with a full medical escort, lights flashing.
In the ICU, doctors would ask the obvious question: “What factors led to this condition?” In their study, The Barna Group found the following factors:
1. People are living longer, remaining active longer – ministers included;
2. More people are entering the ministry later in life, and with this, there is a growing bi-vocational population;
3. An insufficient number of young adults are entering the ministry;
4. Financial pressures on pastors are causing them to leave the ministry;
5. The allure of entrepreneurship among young adults: they can “make a difference” doing something else without all of the institutional church baggage;
6. The lack of succession planning among Baby Boomer generation ministers.
7. The lack of leadership development in U40s leaves young ministers unable to continue.
NOTE: The mission of Journey Pastoral Coaching is to address this very issue. Please help us help them!
It is my experience, and the experience of most of my peers, that in our early ministry years, we had the benefit of active, positive mentors. Sadly, studies show that we who benefitted from mentorship are not as active in offering it to the next generation: mentorship in ministry is lacking today. Where, in previous decades, churches were led by pastors who understood that part of their responsibility was helping young pastors develop, the same cannot be said of Boomer Generation pastors. Today, churches are led by “leaders” who do not feel a responsibility (or ability?) to help U40s develop. CEOs have displaced shepherds in the church. Not only does it negatively affect this generation of believers, but generations to come as it robs the church of pastors today and tomorrow (see Matthew 9.36).
The apparent solution would seem to be more young adults answering God’s call to the ministry. But this step alone is insufficient for two reasons cited by The Barna Group:
First, young ministers would still face significant financial pressures due to high student loan debt, the low pay of first and second positions, and starting families;
NOTE: Contact us at Journey to help a U40 minister retire his/her school debts.
Second, young ministers still require development after they have entered the ministry – they need it and want it, but can’t find willing mentors.
Unless the church addresses these two vital factors, a large influx of new ministers would be meaningless. As proven by history . . .
. . . Ministries like PastorServe tell us that five of ten new ministers leave the ministry
In their first five years;
. . . The Schaeffer Institute found in a twenty-year survey that every Bible College and seminary graduate had a friend from school who had entered and left the ministry.
I’ll say it again and again: what we’re doing isn’t working. It’s far past time to call 911.
For all of our grand pronouncements and plans, promotions and campaigns, huge office staffs and budgets, mega-meetings and conferences, what we are doing is not working. Not even close. This is not my opinion. This is the report coming out of the forensic machines (here’s the EKG).
The report says it’s a Code Blue in the U40 ICU.
FINAL WORD
Earlier we saw that between the years 2000 and 2021, The AG (USA) lost one U40 minister every 4 to 5 days. Every week of every year for twenty-one years. Without action on our part – yours and mine – there is no reason to expect any change: Every 4 to 5 days this year, another U40 is disappearing. And will continue to disappear in 2023, 2024, and beyond.
Again, it’s a Code Blue in the U40 ICU.
Saddled with large student debt, just beginning to set up homes and start families, and serving in low paying first and second positions, Millennials are those who most desire but can least afford to pay for pastoral coaching.
We are able to do so thanks to the faithful and generous support of individuals and churches like yours who want to see young leaders not only enter the ministry, but remain in the ministry.
Now, more than ever, we need your help.
If you or your church would like to help Millennial ministers across the US and overseas build strong for a lifetime in ministry, please click here to support Journey monthly or with your one-time gift. Thank you.
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